The Effect of Foreign Exchange Market Interventions on Rupiah Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of foreign exchange market intervention on fluctuations in the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate. The study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia. Foreign exchange market intervention is measured by the volume of Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) transactions, while the Rupiah exchange rate is measured using the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR). The dataset covers 12 observation periods from August to September 2026. The analytical techniques include descriptive statistics, simple linear regression, a t-test, and the coefficient of determination. The results show the regression equation Y = 17,772.39 − 0.585X, indicating a negative relationship between foreign exchange market intervention and the value of the Rupiah. However, the t-test produces a significance value of 0.279, which is higher than the 0.05 significance level. Therefore, foreign exchange market intervention does not have a statistically significant effect on fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate during the study period. The coefficient of determination of 11.60% indicates that foreign exchange market intervention explains only a small proportion of the variation in the Rupiah exchange rate, while the remaining 88.40% is attributable to other factors outside the research model. These findings suggest that Rupiah exchange rate stability is influenced not only by Bank Indonesia’s intervention policies but also by various domestic and global economic factors.