From Tariff Threats to Trade Agreements: An Analysis of U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Policies toward Indonesian Trade

Abstract

The United States is one of Indonesia’s important trading partners, particularly as a major destination for Indonesian exports. Changes in United States tariff policy therefore have implications for Indonesia’s international trade performance. This study aims to analyze the changes in United States reciprocal tariff policy and their relation to the development of Indonesian exports to the United States during 2025–2026. This study uses a descriptive quantitative approach based on secondary data obtained from official sources. The data include Indonesian export values to the United States, exchange rate information, and official documents related to United States tariff policies. Data were analyzed descriptively by comparing trade developments before and after changes in tariff policy and presenting the results through tables and narrative analysis. The results show that Indonesian exports to the United States remained relatively strong amid changes in United States tariff policy. In 2025, Indonesian exports to the United States reached US$30.96 billion, while imports amounted to US$12.85 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$18.11 billion. In early 2026, the United States remained one of Indonesia’s major non-oil and gas export destinations. The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade established an additional reciprocal tariff rate of up to 19 percent for most Indonesian products, with specific products receiving different tariff treatment. These findings indicate that tariff policy is an important factor in the Indonesia–United States trading environment, although export performance is also influenced by market demand, product competitiveness, exchange rates, and broader international trade conditions.